The actual cost-of-living-adjustment won't be announced until October, but early predictions say the increase will be a smaller percentage than the 2025 increase.

The nonpartisan Senior Citizens League expects the COLA to be 2.3% for 2026, based on a forecast that inflation will drop throughout the coming year. Another forecast by independent Social Security and Medicare analyst Mary Johnson puts the expected COLA increase at 2.1%.

Starting in January, Social Security recipients saw a 2.5% increase in their monthly payments as the annual cost of living adjustment (COLA) took effect. Benefits for February were sent out Wednesday. Social Security payments are sent on the second, third and fourth Wednesday of the month, depending on the recipient's birth date.

While the actual 2026 Social Security cost-of-living increase for retired workers won’t be announced until October, the Senior Citizens League is predicting a 2.3% increase for 2026 – a modest decrease from the 2.

It's far too early to know what next year's Social Security cost-of-living adjustment might be. However, based on several inflation estimates, it's possible to make an educated prediction. In this video, Certified Financial Planner® Matt Frankel discusses what he foresees for Social Security recipients in 2026.