The view that the Chinese leadership was desperate to negotiate a trade deal, to avoid economic pain that could destabilize Chinese society and threaten the Chinese Communist Party’s monopoly on power, is common among China hawks in the United States. This analysis is partly accurate, but it has led many to draw false conclusions.

China has advanced this year's stimulus plans but is holding off on fresh measures as it tries to maintain composure, betting on Washington blinking first in a protracted trade war. The Communist Party's elite decision-making body,