Goldman Sachs has lifted its 12-month U.S. recession probability to 25%, but the headline number only captures part of the ...

Wall Street analysts increased their probabilities for a recession as oil prices remain volatile amid the Middle East war.

US recession warning 2026: US recession fears are escalating as rising oil prices and global tensions, particularly the ...

The risks of a recession are increasing.

Moody's recession model is flashing a warning signal that a recession could be around the corner -- and that was before oil ...

It's becoming harder to ignore the risk of a recession as the Iran war causes historic disruptions in energy markets. The US economy skated through 2025 on a solid footing, but the bull case for ...

The likelihood of a recession has increased significantly since February, according to the predictions market platform Kalshi ...

TMC Research’s nowcast of recession risk continues to indicate a low probability that a downturn has started or is imminent. The economy has probably slowed in Q4, but the downshift doesn’t look sharp ...

Recession probability climbs to 39.2% in March 2026. Markets decline, oil prices surge, and key valuation metrics signal economic uncertainty ahead.

Economists say the conflict in Iran is making a recession more likely, with higher energy prices hitting consumers and ...

The Iran war is now on its first month and no one knows when it will end, so the world’s economic wheels will again turn faster.

Building on Ben Bernanke’s widely used recession probability model, we invented a better model using exactly the same data. I have modeled recession forecasts since 2006. Our new method is a ...